FOR RELEASE: Tuesday, October 1st, 2024
Contact:
Zac Rogers, Ph.D.
Logistics Manager’s Index Analyst
Associate Professor, Supply Chain Management
Department of Management
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, Colorado
(970) 491-0890
E-mail: [email protected]
http://www.logisticsindex.org
Twitter: @LogisticsIndex
Contact:
Zac Rogers, Ph.D.
Logistics Manager’s Index Analyst
Associate Professor, Supply Chain Management
Department of Management
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, Colorado
(970) 491-0890
E-mail: [email protected]
http://www.logisticsindex.org
Twitter: @LogisticsIndex
September 2024 Logistics Manager’s Index Report®
LMI® at 58.6
Growth is INCREASING AT AN INCREASING RATE for: Inventory Levels, Inventory Costs, Warehousing Utilization, Warehousing Prices, and Transportation Utilization.
Growth is INCREASING AT A DECREASING RATE for: Warehousing Capacity and Transportation Prices.
NO CHANGE for Transportation Capacity
LMI® at 58.6
Growth is INCREASING AT AN INCREASING RATE for: Inventory Levels, Inventory Costs, Warehousing Utilization, Warehousing Prices, and Transportation Utilization.
Growth is INCREASING AT A DECREASING RATE for: Warehousing Capacity and Transportation Prices.
NO CHANGE for Transportation Capacity
(Live from CSCMP in Nashville, TN) — The September Logistics Manager’s Index reads in at 58.6, up (+2.2) from August’s reading of 56.4 and at its highest levels since two years ago in September 2022. The overall index has now increased for ten consecutive months, providing strong evidence that the logistics industry is back on solid footing. We saw a continuation of August’s trends in September as Inventory Levels increased (+4.1) to 59.8. This is largely driven by the long-expected restocking of Downstream retailers. After several months of contraction, Downstream respondents are reporting expansion for Inventory Levels at a rate of 55.7. This represents some modicum of relief for Upstream supply chains, where goods had been building up like rainclouds waiting for the eventual downstream release as we move into Q4. This shift is reflected in the significantly higher rates of both Downstream Warehousing Prices (75.0 to 64.9 Upstream) and Transportation Prices (68.3 to 55.1 Upstream), signaling that retail supply chains are whirring back into motion for peak season. The fact that peak season is happening at all should be a bit of a relief for the logistics industry – and economy as a whole – since we have not really seen a traditional seasonal peak since 2021 (or possibly even 2019 if you don’t consider 2020 or 2021 to be “normal”). A result of this activity is that Transportation Capacity has moved back down to 50.0 and “no movement”, the second time that has happened in 2024. Transportation Capacity has not contracted since March of 2022. This metric is already contracting at the Downstream level (4.50). It will be interesting to see if the current trajectory continues and it moves back to contraction at any point in Q4.
Researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Florida Atlantic University, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, and in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) issued this report today.
Results Overview
The LMI score is a combination of eight unique components that make up the logistics industry, including: inventory levels and costs, warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices, and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The LMI is calculated using a diffusion index, in which any reading above 50.0 indicates that logistics is expanding; a reading below 50.0 is indicative of a shrinking logistics industry. The latest results of the LMI summarize the responses of supply chain professionals collected in September 2024.
The LMI read in at 58.6 in September, up (+2.3) from August’s reading of 56.4, its highest level in two full years. While this is the 24th consecutive reading below the all-time average of 61.8 for the overall metric, the current trajectory suggests that may not be the case for long. In many ways, this is reflective of the overall economy, which has recovered throughout 2024, and appears poised to expand more forcefully in 2025. Inflation continued to cool down in August, with PCE slowing to 2.2% year-over-year inflation; down 0.3% from July and close to the Fed’s long-term goal of 2% inflation. The number has led some analysts to suggest that the Fed will cut rates again in 2024[1]. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 70.1 at the end of September, up (+3.2) from August’s reading of 67.9. Forward look sentiment was up as well (+2.3) to 74.4 in late September[2]. The percentage of U.S. households below the poverty line was down, and incomes were up 4% in 2023 to $80,610 per household. With this increase household incomes are nearly on par with their all-time high reading of $81,210 in 2019 before the pandemic[3]. While this is a positive sign for consumers, it should be noted that these are raw numbers and not adjusted for inflation. The fact that U.S. incomes are still not quite back to where they were four years ago demonstrates just how long the economic hangover of COVID-19 has been. All of this positive economic data contributed to increases in all of the major U.S. stock indices in the last week of September, with the S&P 500 and the Dow respectively marking their 42nd and 32nd record high closes[4].
As has been the case through most of the last year, the outlook in other parts of the world is more complex, and in many cases less optimistic, than the U.S. For instance, inflation also declined in France and Spain in September, which will likely lead to further rate cuts in the EU[5]. Germany has displayed mild improvement in consumer climate, but continues to recover more slowly than what analysts had been anticipating[6]. This is reflected in the European Commission’s aggregate measure of business and consumer confidence was down 0.3% month-over-month, sliding slightly in the post-Olympics period[7]. There were some signs of life in China. In the last week of September Chinese regulators put forth an economic stimulus package which included interest rate cuts, an allowance for smaller downpayments on mortgages, and increased lending rates for firms engaging in stock buybacks. As a result, the Chinese CSI index increased by 15.7%, its greatest weekly gain since 2008[8]. The stock buybacks may be a temporary sugar high, so it will be interesting to monitor what long-term growth may come out of this stimulus package for the world’s second-largest economy. Finally, closer to home, Canada’s GDP was flat in August, following a slight 0.2% uptick in July that had led some analysts to hope that the Canadian economy was picking up steam[9]. This has led Bank of Canada officials to push for growth increases and a likely half-point interest rate cut at their October meeting[10]. The EU, China, and Canada are all among the U.S.’s most important trading partners, and the health of those countries will go a long way to determining the potential for supply chain activity.
Of course, continued international trade with these countries relies heavily on the continued operation of U.S. ports, which is not as much of a sure thing at the end of September as supply managers would prefer. Port operators and carriers have appealed to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to force the International Longshoreman’s Association (ILA) to begin negotiating a new contract before the current deal expires on October 1st. The ILA allegedly won’t come to the table until the ports agree to a 77% increase in wages over the next six years – a level of pay that would dwarf the recent increase that West Coast dock workers recently gained[11]. It became clear during covid how much the U.S. economy relies on dockworkers, and the ILA is attempting to capitalize on what is expected to be the busiest peak season since 2021. Over half of U.S. imports come in through East and Gulf Coast ports. If strikes do take place and continue for a significant length of time it will complicate Q4 supply chains. Loadstar data suggest that there are currently 39 container ships scheduled to arrive at the Port of New York/New Jersey in the first week of October. If they are not able to be unloaded there they may have to “port hop” to Canadian, Mexican, or West Coast ports. There is some limitation here as Montreal dock workers are taking advantage of the turmoil at U.S. ports by planning a three-day walkout for the first week of October, limiting the alternate delivery options for carriers[12] In the short run it is also likely that many of them will simply idle outside of U.S. ports, hoping for the labor issue to be resolved quickly. With the potential for billions of dollars of inventory to be stranded, and the toll that would take on costs and availability of goods during an election year, it can also not be ruled out that the Biden administration would step in to circumvent strikes in some key terminals were they to carry on for an extended period of time[13]. An extended strike would be particularly devastating for retailers that have attempted to move back to JIT models and may once again find themselves short on inventory heading into what should be a robust holiday season.
This uncertainty surrounding the ports is a primary reason that Upstream Inventory Levels had built up throughout the summer. As mentioned above, we finally see those inventories moving to retailers, as Downstream Inventory Levels are expanding (56.7) after three consecutive months of contraction. Overall, we see Inventory Levels expanding at the robust rate of 59.8 as goods begin to move from wholesalers and distributors to retailers. This growth has driven Inventory Costs to expand as well, increasing (+2.3) to 71.3, which is the first time since February of 2023 that this metric has been above 70.0.
The interplay between Upstream and Downstream Inventory Levels provides insights into both the past and future of the logistics industry and overall economy. The chart below displays movements in Upstream (blue line) and Downstream (orange line) Inventory Levels from September 2022 to September 2024. There are a few key takeaways from this chart. The first is that Inventory Levels are clearly lower in September 2024 than they were at the same time in 2022, but higher than they were in 2023. This shows that firms have been able to operate leaner than in 2022 when retailers were overstocked from covid but are also more confident than they were a year ago when fears of a recession were high and peak season demand did not materialize. We have been reporting throughout the summer that Upstream Inventory Levels were higher than those of their Downstream counterparts. Now it is clear that those Upstream movements were foreshadowing corresponding movements Downstream. This likely represented firms getting products into the U.S. ahead of port strikes but waiting to move them to the retail level until the very end of Q3 as a way to maintain JIT practices. The fact that there has been excess available Transportation Capacity also likely made retailers feel more comfortable waiting longer to move goods, knowing that they would be able to find affordable options to move them downstream. The current inventory trajectory suggests that retailers are expecting a healthy fourth quarter and holiday season. It will be interesting to continue monitoring these dynamics through the rest of the year to see if this comes to pass.
Researchers at Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Florida Atlantic University, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, and in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) issued this report today.
Results Overview
The LMI score is a combination of eight unique components that make up the logistics industry, including: inventory levels and costs, warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices, and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The LMI is calculated using a diffusion index, in which any reading above 50.0 indicates that logistics is expanding; a reading below 50.0 is indicative of a shrinking logistics industry. The latest results of the LMI summarize the responses of supply chain professionals collected in September 2024.
The LMI read in at 58.6 in September, up (+2.3) from August’s reading of 56.4, its highest level in two full years. While this is the 24th consecutive reading below the all-time average of 61.8 for the overall metric, the current trajectory suggests that may not be the case for long. In many ways, this is reflective of the overall economy, which has recovered throughout 2024, and appears poised to expand more forcefully in 2025. Inflation continued to cool down in August, with PCE slowing to 2.2% year-over-year inflation; down 0.3% from July and close to the Fed’s long-term goal of 2% inflation. The number has led some analysts to suggest that the Fed will cut rates again in 2024[1]. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 70.1 at the end of September, up (+3.2) from August’s reading of 67.9. Forward look sentiment was up as well (+2.3) to 74.4 in late September[2]. The percentage of U.S. households below the poverty line was down, and incomes were up 4% in 2023 to $80,610 per household. With this increase household incomes are nearly on par with their all-time high reading of $81,210 in 2019 before the pandemic[3]. While this is a positive sign for consumers, it should be noted that these are raw numbers and not adjusted for inflation. The fact that U.S. incomes are still not quite back to where they were four years ago demonstrates just how long the economic hangover of COVID-19 has been. All of this positive economic data contributed to increases in all of the major U.S. stock indices in the last week of September, with the S&P 500 and the Dow respectively marking their 42nd and 32nd record high closes[4].
As has been the case through most of the last year, the outlook in other parts of the world is more complex, and in many cases less optimistic, than the U.S. For instance, inflation also declined in France and Spain in September, which will likely lead to further rate cuts in the EU[5]. Germany has displayed mild improvement in consumer climate, but continues to recover more slowly than what analysts had been anticipating[6]. This is reflected in the European Commission’s aggregate measure of business and consumer confidence was down 0.3% month-over-month, sliding slightly in the post-Olympics period[7]. There were some signs of life in China. In the last week of September Chinese regulators put forth an economic stimulus package which included interest rate cuts, an allowance for smaller downpayments on mortgages, and increased lending rates for firms engaging in stock buybacks. As a result, the Chinese CSI index increased by 15.7%, its greatest weekly gain since 2008[8]. The stock buybacks may be a temporary sugar high, so it will be interesting to monitor what long-term growth may come out of this stimulus package for the world’s second-largest economy. Finally, closer to home, Canada’s GDP was flat in August, following a slight 0.2% uptick in July that had led some analysts to hope that the Canadian economy was picking up steam[9]. This has led Bank of Canada officials to push for growth increases and a likely half-point interest rate cut at their October meeting[10]. The EU, China, and Canada are all among the U.S.’s most important trading partners, and the health of those countries will go a long way to determining the potential for supply chain activity.
Of course, continued international trade with these countries relies heavily on the continued operation of U.S. ports, which is not as much of a sure thing at the end of September as supply managers would prefer. Port operators and carriers have appealed to the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to force the International Longshoreman’s Association (ILA) to begin negotiating a new contract before the current deal expires on October 1st. The ILA allegedly won’t come to the table until the ports agree to a 77% increase in wages over the next six years – a level of pay that would dwarf the recent increase that West Coast dock workers recently gained[11]. It became clear during covid how much the U.S. economy relies on dockworkers, and the ILA is attempting to capitalize on what is expected to be the busiest peak season since 2021. Over half of U.S. imports come in through East and Gulf Coast ports. If strikes do take place and continue for a significant length of time it will complicate Q4 supply chains. Loadstar data suggest that there are currently 39 container ships scheduled to arrive at the Port of New York/New Jersey in the first week of October. If they are not able to be unloaded there they may have to “port hop” to Canadian, Mexican, or West Coast ports. There is some limitation here as Montreal dock workers are taking advantage of the turmoil at U.S. ports by planning a three-day walkout for the first week of October, limiting the alternate delivery options for carriers[12] In the short run it is also likely that many of them will simply idle outside of U.S. ports, hoping for the labor issue to be resolved quickly. With the potential for billions of dollars of inventory to be stranded, and the toll that would take on costs and availability of goods during an election year, it can also not be ruled out that the Biden administration would step in to circumvent strikes in some key terminals were they to carry on for an extended period of time[13]. An extended strike would be particularly devastating for retailers that have attempted to move back to JIT models and may once again find themselves short on inventory heading into what should be a robust holiday season.
This uncertainty surrounding the ports is a primary reason that Upstream Inventory Levels had built up throughout the summer. As mentioned above, we finally see those inventories moving to retailers, as Downstream Inventory Levels are expanding (56.7) after three consecutive months of contraction. Overall, we see Inventory Levels expanding at the robust rate of 59.8 as goods begin to move from wholesalers and distributors to retailers. This growth has driven Inventory Costs to expand as well, increasing (+2.3) to 71.3, which is the first time since February of 2023 that this metric has been above 70.0.
The interplay between Upstream and Downstream Inventory Levels provides insights into both the past and future of the logistics industry and overall economy. The chart below displays movements in Upstream (blue line) and Downstream (orange line) Inventory Levels from September 2022 to September 2024. There are a few key takeaways from this chart. The first is that Inventory Levels are clearly lower in September 2024 than they were at the same time in 2022, but higher than they were in 2023. This shows that firms have been able to operate leaner than in 2022 when retailers were overstocked from covid but are also more confident than they were a year ago when fears of a recession were high and peak season demand did not materialize. We have been reporting throughout the summer that Upstream Inventory Levels were higher than those of their Downstream counterparts. Now it is clear that those Upstream movements were foreshadowing corresponding movements Downstream. This likely represented firms getting products into the U.S. ahead of port strikes but waiting to move them to the retail level until the very end of Q3 as a way to maintain JIT practices. The fact that there has been excess available Transportation Capacity also likely made retailers feel more comfortable waiting longer to move goods, knowing that they would be able to find affordable options to move them downstream. The current inventory trajectory suggests that retailers are expecting a healthy fourth quarter and holiday season. It will be interesting to continue monitoring these dynamics through the rest of the year to see if this comes to pass.
The effect of these Upstream inventories has been apparent in the demand for port-adjacent warehousing space. The biggest increase for metro areas from 2019-2023 are Savannah, GA, with 64.8% growth. There has also been robust growth at Olympia Washington (52.7%). The Inland Empire is the traditional growth area for the Southern California ports and has added 84.1 million square feet of space over the last four years. However, limited space and the high cost of real estate in California has led to the proliferation of inland staging areas in western metro areas. This is reflected in Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Austin all reporting greater than 40% growth in distribution space from 2019-2023[14]. It is not only southwestern metros though, as over 18 million square feet of new warehousing is planned for development in Long Island[15], allowing for increased service levels of e-commerce retailers in the largest metro area in the U.S. In spite of all of this construction, the expansion rate of Warehousing Capacity has slowed (-3.7) to 55.9. Even with the slight growth in available capacity, Warehousing Utilization is up (+3.3) to 60.9, and so are Warehousing Prices (+3.2) at 66.9. This reading for Warehousing Prices is the highest since October of 2023, and provides additional evidence of buildup of inventories and subsequent need for a place to hold them.
We also see evidence of increasing inventories in the freight market. While the rate is down (-3.2), Transportation Prices expanded for the fifth consecutive month in September at a rate of 58.4. This is the longest continuous stretch of expansion for Transportation Prices since late 2021 to early 2022. Further evidence of this increased demand comes in the form of Transportation Utilization continuing to expand (-1.9) at a rate of 57.6. Increasing utilization has pushed down available capacity as well, as Transportation Capacity is down (-6.7) to 50.0, indicating “no movement”. The capacity situation could change quickly with the port shutdowns. One of the things that made transportation so expensive in 2021 was the imbalance of freight capacity. The disproportionate volume of goods coming in through West Coast ports meant that trucks were continually rushing back to Southern California to pick up expensive loads, leading to a shortage of capacity in the other parts of the country. Freight capacity was re-balanced over the last two years as more volume shifted to East and Gulf Coast ports. It is likely that a prolonged strike would push us back towards that imbalance, artificially depressing available Transportation Capacity and inflating Transportation Prices across the country. This price growth is due to demand and not costs. The average price for U.S. Diesel Fuel was up $0.013 to $3.539/gallon in the last week of September, breaking 10-week streak of declining prices and possibly reflecting the start of peak freight season. Interestingly, fuel costs are down in almost all coastal regions (they are up a negligible 0.003/gallon in the Central Atlantic). Instead, this increase is driven by the Midwest, Rock Mountain, and Gulf Coast regions, which suggests that the inventory that was being held close to coastal ports is now moving to inland markets. Even with this slight increase, prices are down 1.047/gallon from the same time a year ago[16]
Respondents were asked to predict movement in the overall LMI and individual metrics 12 months from now. Respondents grew increasingly optimistic in September, predicting expansion in the overall index at a rate of 65.4, which would be slightly above the all-time average of 61.8. This growth is predicted to be driven by Inventory Levels expanding at a rate of 61.0. This robust rate of Inventory Level growth is predicted to cascade outwards, driving forecasted Inventory Costs (70.9, Warehousing Prices (70.7), and Transportation Prices (80.0) up to significant levels of growth. The reading of 80.0 for Transportation Prices would be the highest since early 2022, and signal a move back to a full-fledged freight boom – something that is backed up by the predicted contraction of 44.2 for Transportation Capacity.
We also see evidence of increasing inventories in the freight market. While the rate is down (-3.2), Transportation Prices expanded for the fifth consecutive month in September at a rate of 58.4. This is the longest continuous stretch of expansion for Transportation Prices since late 2021 to early 2022. Further evidence of this increased demand comes in the form of Transportation Utilization continuing to expand (-1.9) at a rate of 57.6. Increasing utilization has pushed down available capacity as well, as Transportation Capacity is down (-6.7) to 50.0, indicating “no movement”. The capacity situation could change quickly with the port shutdowns. One of the things that made transportation so expensive in 2021 was the imbalance of freight capacity. The disproportionate volume of goods coming in through West Coast ports meant that trucks were continually rushing back to Southern California to pick up expensive loads, leading to a shortage of capacity in the other parts of the country. Freight capacity was re-balanced over the last two years as more volume shifted to East and Gulf Coast ports. It is likely that a prolonged strike would push us back towards that imbalance, artificially depressing available Transportation Capacity and inflating Transportation Prices across the country. This price growth is due to demand and not costs. The average price for U.S. Diesel Fuel was up $0.013 to $3.539/gallon in the last week of September, breaking 10-week streak of declining prices and possibly reflecting the start of peak freight season. Interestingly, fuel costs are down in almost all coastal regions (they are up a negligible 0.003/gallon in the Central Atlantic). Instead, this increase is driven by the Midwest, Rock Mountain, and Gulf Coast regions, which suggests that the inventory that was being held close to coastal ports is now moving to inland markets. Even with this slight increase, prices are down 1.047/gallon from the same time a year ago[16]
Respondents were asked to predict movement in the overall LMI and individual metrics 12 months from now. Respondents grew increasingly optimistic in September, predicting expansion in the overall index at a rate of 65.4, which would be slightly above the all-time average of 61.8. This growth is predicted to be driven by Inventory Levels expanding at a rate of 61.0. This robust rate of Inventory Level growth is predicted to cascade outwards, driving forecasted Inventory Costs (70.9, Warehousing Prices (70.7), and Transportation Prices (80.0) up to significant levels of growth. The reading of 80.0 for Transportation Prices would be the highest since early 2022, and signal a move back to a full-fledged freight boom – something that is backed up by the predicted contraction of 44.2 for Transportation Capacity.
Welcome back to the party Downstream retailers! A comparison of the feedback from Upstream (blue bars) and Downstream (orange bars) respondents show several interesting changes. Throughout most of the summer, Upstream firms reported expanding Inventory Levels while Downstream respondents reported contraction. That trend finally broke in September, as Downstream firms reported expansion in Inventory Levels at 56.7. Respondents had been indicating that the shift of inventories downstream was coming. Now, at the end of Q3, we finally have evidence that has happened. This is still a lower rate of expansion that we saw Upstream (61.6), but it comes with higher cost readings across the board and a tighter transportation market, including in Transportation Prices, which are significantly higher for Downstream firms (68.3 to 55.1) as they rush to move goods downstream while also attempting to stick to JIT principles. While the difference is not statistically significant, it is notable that Transportation Capacity dipped into contraction (45.0) Downstream and expanded only very slightly (50.1) Upstream. Clearly, the freight market is picking up at all levels of the supply chain. The only significant difference that we do see is in Warehousing Prices, which is growing at a significantly faster rate Downstream (75.0) than Upstream (64.9), providing further confirmation that retailers are building up inventories at the end of Q3, in anticipation of a strong Q4.
Welcome back to the party Downstream retailers! A comparison of the feedback from Upstream (blue bars) and Downstream (orange bars) respondents show several interesting changes. Throughout most of the summer, Upstream firms reported expanding Inventory Levels while Downstream respondents reported contraction. That trend finally broke in September, as Downstream firms reported expansion in Inventory Levels at 56.7. Respondents had been indicating that the shift of inventories downstream was coming. Now, at the end of Q3, we finally have evidence that has happened. This is still a lower rate of expansion that we saw Upstream (61.6), but it comes with higher cost readings across the board and a tighter transportation market, including in Transportation Prices, which are significantly higher for Downstream firms (68.3 to 55.1) as they rush to move goods downstream while also attempting to stick to JIT principles. While the difference is not statistically significant, it is notable that Transportation Capacity dipped into contraction (45.0) Downstream and expanded only very slightly (50.1) Upstream. Clearly, the freight market is picking up at all levels of the supply chain. The only significant difference that we do see is in Warehousing Prices, which is growing at a significantly faster rate Downstream (75.0) than Upstream (64.9), providing further confirmation that retailers are building up inventories at the end of Q3, in anticipation of a strong Q4.
Future predictions from Upstream (green bars) and Downstream respondents (purple bars) add nuance to the contemporary differences discussed above. Despite the current spike in inventories, Downstream firms are predicting a very mild expansion of Inventory Levels at 51.7, statistically lower than the expansion of 63.8 predicted Upstream. Interestingly, Inventory Cost dynamics are reversed, with Downstream coming in significantly higher than their Upstream counterparts (79.3 to 68.2). Take together, these suggests that Upstream firms are expecting to continue on the path of growth we have seen over the last year – something that is at least partially facilitated by the move towards lower interest rates. At the same time, Downstream firms are clearly hoping to tightly control inventories via JIT policies but are also anticipating high levels of turnover which will drive up costs across the board. Transportation is expected to continue tightening at all levels of the supply chain, with both Upstream and Downstream firms predicting Transportation Contraction in the 40’s and significant rates of expansion for Transportation Prices (78.3 and 85.0 respectively). If these predictions hold, it would indicate strong growth in the logistics industry at multiple levels of the supply chain in 2025.
Like August, feedback from respondents was fairly similar between early (gold bars) and late (green bars) in September. Movements in inventories and warehousing was very consistent throughout the month. The only statistically significant difference we observe was in Transportation Utilization, which expanded robustly at 63.8 in early September, but much more mildly at 52.7 in the second half of the month. The slowed utilization came despite the shift in Transportation Capacity from slight growth (51.7) early to mild contraction (48.6) late. Taken together, they may indicate that the surge of excess capacity from the end of last month continued into the beginning of September, and then tailed off later. This extra capacity may have allowed firms to utilize (and also pay) slightly less in the end of the month. That does not mean the freight market is softening by any stretch. Rather, that capacity is tightening, and utilization and price continue to expand (even if at a slightly slower pace).
Like August, feedback from respondents was fairly similar between early (gold bars) and late (green bars) in September. Movements in inventories and warehousing was very consistent throughout the month. The only statistically significant difference we observe was in Transportation Utilization, which expanded robustly at 63.8 in early September, but much more mildly at 52.7 in the second half of the month. The slowed utilization came despite the shift in Transportation Capacity from slight growth (51.7) early to mild contraction (48.6) late. Taken together, they may indicate that the surge of excess capacity from the end of last month continued into the beginning of September, and then tailed off later. This extra capacity may have allowed firms to utilize (and also pay) slightly less in the end of the month. That does not mean the freight market is softening by any stretch. Rather, that capacity is tightening, and utilization and price continue to expand (even if at a slightly slower pace).
We also track differences between the responses of larger firms (those with 1,000 employees or more, represented by gold lines) and smaller firms (those with 0-999 employees, represented by maroon lines). The only statistically significant difference in September is in available Warehousing Capacity, where smaller firms are seeing negligible growth at 51.6, while their Upstream Counterparts report robust expansion at 60.9. This may indicate that it is more difficult for smaller firms to find sufficient storage. It will be interesting to continue following this dynamic through Q4, as storage growing scarer and more expensive could lead to smaller firms getting priced out like they did in 2021. We see the opposite story for Transportation Capacity, as larger firms are showing slight contraction at 48.3, suggesting that they are increasingly busy as peak season nears.
We also track differences between the responses of larger firms (those with 1,000 employees or more, represented by gold lines) and smaller firms (those with 0-999 employees, represented by maroon lines). The only statistically significant difference in September is in available Warehousing Capacity, where smaller firms are seeing negligible growth at 51.6, while their Upstream Counterparts report robust expansion at 60.9. This may indicate that it is more difficult for smaller firms to find sufficient storage. It will be interesting to continue following this dynamic through Q4, as storage growing scarer and more expensive could lead to smaller firms getting priced out like they did in 2021. We see the opposite story for Transportation Capacity, as larger firms are showing slight contraction at 48.3, suggesting that they are increasingly busy as peak season nears.
The index scores for each of the eight components of the Logistics Managers’ Index, as well as the overall index score, are presented in the table below. The rate of expansion for the overall index is up (+2.3) to its highest level in two years at 58.6. This is driven by a continue expansion in Inventory Levels (+4.2) which have now expanded for two consecutive months after contracting for the previous three. This is clearly driving increased utilization of capacity. Warehousing Capacity growth slowed (-3.7) to 55.9, and Transportation Capacity dropped (-6.7) from expansion to no movement. Warehousing Utilization and Warehousing Prices are expanding more quickly, while Transportation Utilization and Prices are expanding at slower rates relative to August.
Historic Logistics Managers’ Index Scores
This period’s along with prior readings from the last two years of the LMI are presented table below:
This period’s along with prior readings from the last two years of the LMI are presented table below:
LMI®
The overall index reads in at 58.6, up (+2.2), from August’s reading of 56.4. This is the highest reading for the overall index since September of 2022, and marks 10 consecutive months of expansion. As mentioned above, this expansion has been primarily driven by increasing Inventory Levels (particularly Downstream) which has in turn led to capacities tightening and prices increasing. While this month’s reading is slightly lower (-2.8) than it was two years ago, it is up (+6.4) considerably from this time a year ago.
When asked to predict what conditions will be over the next 12 months respondents foresee a rate of expansion of 65.4, up (+3.0) from August’s future prediction of 62.4. This prediction is well above the all-time average of 61.8, which suggests that 2025 will be a robust year for the logistics industry. This prediction is consistent across the supply chain as there is very little difference in the predictions between Upstream (65.8) and Downstream (66.5) firms.
The overall index reads in at 58.6, up (+2.2), from August’s reading of 56.4. This is the highest reading for the overall index since September of 2022, and marks 10 consecutive months of expansion. As mentioned above, this expansion has been primarily driven by increasing Inventory Levels (particularly Downstream) which has in turn led to capacities tightening and prices increasing. While this month’s reading is slightly lower (-2.8) than it was two years ago, it is up (+6.4) considerably from this time a year ago.
When asked to predict what conditions will be over the next 12 months respondents foresee a rate of expansion of 65.4, up (+3.0) from August’s future prediction of 62.4. This prediction is well above the all-time average of 61.8, which suggests that 2025 will be a robust year for the logistics industry. This prediction is consistent across the supply chain as there is very little difference in the predictions between Upstream (65.8) and Downstream (66.5) firms.
Inventory Levels
The Inventory Level index is 59.8, up (+4.1) from August’s reading of 55.7 and up significantly (+10.3) from July’s of contraction at 49.5. As mentioned above, this is driven partially by Downstream firms reporting inventories moving from contraction to expansion at 56.7. If firms truly are re-stocking it will mark a shift. Inventory levels have been increasing more than decreasing over the last 12 months. But over the last 17 values, 10 indicated falling inventory levels. This was a real change from the previous years. Prior to May, 2023, there had only been one period of declining inventory values since Jan, 2020.This restocking was consistent across the month. Early respondents (from the first half of the month) returned a value of 60.8, and later respondents returned a nearly identical value of 59.1, indicating that the trends did not change over the month.
When asked to predict what conditions will be like 12 months from now, the average value is 61.0, up (+2.2) from August’s future prediction of 58.8. Like last month, Upstream respondents expect a significant increase, at 63.8, while downstream respondents expect a very small increase, at 51.7 which is consistent with principles of JIT.
The Inventory Level index is 59.8, up (+4.1) from August’s reading of 55.7 and up significantly (+10.3) from July’s of contraction at 49.5. As mentioned above, this is driven partially by Downstream firms reporting inventories moving from contraction to expansion at 56.7. If firms truly are re-stocking it will mark a shift. Inventory levels have been increasing more than decreasing over the last 12 months. But over the last 17 values, 10 indicated falling inventory levels. This was a real change from the previous years. Prior to May, 2023, there had only been one period of declining inventory values since Jan, 2020.This restocking was consistent across the month. Early respondents (from the first half of the month) returned a value of 60.8, and later respondents returned a nearly identical value of 59.1, indicating that the trends did not change over the month.
When asked to predict what conditions will be like 12 months from now, the average value is 61.0, up (+2.2) from August’s future prediction of 58.8. Like last month, Upstream respondents expect a significant increase, at 63.8, while downstream respondents expect a very small increase, at 51.7 which is consistent with principles of JIT.
Inventory Costs
Inventory costs read in at 71.3, up (+2.3) from August’s reading of 69.0. This is the first reading in the 70’s since February of 2023. Upstream and Downstream respondents returned similar values, 70.3 for upstream and 75.0 for downstream. Both Upstream and Downstream are seeing significant increases in inventory costs. This is also a pattern we have frequently observed recently. Above, we saw with inventory levels that values increased consistently throughout the month. Costs show a similar trend. Early respondents returned a reading of 69.4, and late returned a higher value of 72.7. Both small and large firms saw increases in Inventory Levels and Inventory Costs. Smaller firms were more likely to see inventory increases (by 8.7 points), but larger firms were more likely to experience increased costs (by 4.0 points). So large firms experienced an increase in costs that was proportionately greater.
Predictions for future Inventory Cost growth is 70.9, nearly identical (+0.1) for August’s future prediction of 70.8. , nearly identical (+0.2) to July’s future prediction of 70.6. Upstream future predictions averaged 68.2, indicating they expect significant increases in inventory levels a year from now. Downstream expected a significantly larger increase of 79.3, suggesting that event with a continuation of JIT practices inventories would continue turning over quickly, leading to higher costs.
Inventory costs read in at 71.3, up (+2.3) from August’s reading of 69.0. This is the first reading in the 70’s since February of 2023. Upstream and Downstream respondents returned similar values, 70.3 for upstream and 75.0 for downstream. Both Upstream and Downstream are seeing significant increases in inventory costs. This is also a pattern we have frequently observed recently. Above, we saw with inventory levels that values increased consistently throughout the month. Costs show a similar trend. Early respondents returned a reading of 69.4, and late returned a higher value of 72.7. Both small and large firms saw increases in Inventory Levels and Inventory Costs. Smaller firms were more likely to see inventory increases (by 8.7 points), but larger firms were more likely to experience increased costs (by 4.0 points). So large firms experienced an increase in costs that was proportionately greater.
Predictions for future Inventory Cost growth is 70.9, nearly identical (+0.1) for August’s future prediction of 70.8. , nearly identical (+0.2) to July’s future prediction of 70.6. Upstream future predictions averaged 68.2, indicating they expect significant increases in inventory levels a year from now. Downstream expected a significantly larger increase of 79.3, suggesting that event with a continuation of JIT practices inventories would continue turning over quickly, leading to higher costs.
Warehousing Capacity
Warehousing Capacity read in at 55.9 in September, down (-3.7) from August’s reading of 59.5. This reading is down 1.4-points from the reading one year ago, and also up a considerable 11.6-points from the reading two years ago. In addition, there was a 3.8-point split between Upstream (54.5) and Downstream (58.3) which was not statistically significant (p>.1). Comparing the differences between small (<999 employees) and large (>999) employers we see that these values are 51.6 and 60.9, respectively. This 9.3 -point split was not statistically significant (p >.1).
When asked to predict what conditions will be like 12 months from now, respondents expect Warehouse Capacity to expand at a rate of 56.0 very slightly down (-0.7) from August’s future prediction of 56.7. This suggests that there will be new capacity over the next year, but not so much that it will dampen price expansion in a significant way. This is fairly consistent across the supply chain with future Upstream expectations edging up (+3.9) from last month’s future predictions to 55.8 and being relatively similar to than Downstream expectations (58.3) with this 2.5-point split difference not being statistically significant (p>.01) and is a far cry from the 16.4-split reported last month, suggesting that expectations of supply and demand are moving into equilibrium.
Warehousing Capacity read in at 55.9 in September, down (-3.7) from August’s reading of 59.5. This reading is down 1.4-points from the reading one year ago, and also up a considerable 11.6-points from the reading two years ago. In addition, there was a 3.8-point split between Upstream (54.5) and Downstream (58.3) which was not statistically significant (p>.1). Comparing the differences between small (<999 employees) and large (>999) employers we see that these values are 51.6 and 60.9, respectively. This 9.3 -point split was not statistically significant (p >.1).
When asked to predict what conditions will be like 12 months from now, respondents expect Warehouse Capacity to expand at a rate of 56.0 very slightly down (-0.7) from August’s future prediction of 56.7. This suggests that there will be new capacity over the next year, but not so much that it will dampen price expansion in a significant way. This is fairly consistent across the supply chain with future Upstream expectations edging up (+3.9) from last month’s future predictions to 55.8 and being relatively similar to than Downstream expectations (58.3) with this 2.5-point split difference not being statistically significant (p>.01) and is a far cry from the 16.4-split reported last month, suggesting that expectations of supply and demand are moving into equilibrium.
Warehousing Utilization
Warehousing Utilization index read in at 60.9 in September, up (+3.2) from August’s reading of 57.6. Utilization continues to climb after the reading of 52.6 in June which was the second lowest in the history of the index. This reading is down 1.4-points from the reading one year ago, and also up a considerable 11.6-points from the reading two years ago. In addition, there was a 3.8-point split between Upstream (54.5) and Downstream (58.3) which was not statistically significant (p>.1). Comparing the differences between small (<999 employees) and large (>999) employers we see that these values are 51.6 and 60.9, respectively. This 9.3 -point split was not statistically significant (p >.1).
When asked to predict what conditions will be like 12 months from now, respondents expect Warehouse Utilization to increase at a rate of 70.7, up (+3.8) from August’s future prediction of 66.9. Warehouse Utilization is expected to continue to stay in expansionary territory one year out, with future Upstream expectations edging up from last month’s future predictions to 55.8 and being relatively similar to than Downstream expectations (58.3) with this 2.5-point split difference not being statistically significant (p>.1).
Warehousing Utilization index read in at 60.9 in September, up (+3.2) from August’s reading of 57.6. Utilization continues to climb after the reading of 52.6 in June which was the second lowest in the history of the index. This reading is down 1.4-points from the reading one year ago, and also up a considerable 11.6-points from the reading two years ago. In addition, there was a 3.8-point split between Upstream (54.5) and Downstream (58.3) which was not statistically significant (p>.1). Comparing the differences between small (<999 employees) and large (>999) employers we see that these values are 51.6 and 60.9, respectively. This 9.3 -point split was not statistically significant (p >.1).
When asked to predict what conditions will be like 12 months from now, respondents expect Warehouse Utilization to increase at a rate of 70.7, up (+3.8) from August’s future prediction of 66.9. Warehouse Utilization is expected to continue to stay in expansionary territory one year out, with future Upstream expectations edging up from last month’s future predictions to 55.8 and being relatively similar to than Downstream expectations (58.3) with this 2.5-point split difference not being statistically significant (p>.1).
Warehousing Prices
The Warehousing Price index read in at 66.9, up (+6.1) from August’s reading of 63.8, reflecting the increased demand for storage space as inventories build up. T This reading is down from the reading one year ago (by 4.3-points), and also down 8.5 -points from the reading two years ago. In addition, there was a modest (10.1)-point split between Upstream (64.9) and Downstream (75.0) which is statistically significant (p<.1). Comparing the differences between small (<999 employees) and large (>999) employers we see that these values are 64.6 and 69.8 respectively. This 5.2-point split was not statistically significant (p >.1).
When asked to predict what conditions will be like 12 months from now, respondents expect Warehouse Prices to increase at a rate of 74.3, up (+5.5) from August’s future prediction of 68.8 and moving into what we would consider to be a significant level of expansion. Warehouse Prices are expected to continue to stay in expansionary territory one year out, with future Upstream expectations (73.2) being higher than Downstream expectations (78.3). This 5.1-point difference was not statistically significant (p>.1).
The Warehousing Price index read in at 66.9, up (+6.1) from August’s reading of 63.8, reflecting the increased demand for storage space as inventories build up. T This reading is down from the reading one year ago (by 4.3-points), and also down 8.5 -points from the reading two years ago. In addition, there was a modest (10.1)-point split between Upstream (64.9) and Downstream (75.0) which is statistically significant (p<.1). Comparing the differences between small (<999 employees) and large (>999) employers we see that these values are 64.6 and 69.8 respectively. This 5.2-point split was not statistically significant (p >.1).
When asked to predict what conditions will be like 12 months from now, respondents expect Warehouse Prices to increase at a rate of 74.3, up (+5.5) from August’s future prediction of 68.8 and moving into what we would consider to be a significant level of expansion. Warehouse Prices are expected to continue to stay in expansionary territory one year out, with future Upstream expectations (73.2) being higher than Downstream expectations (78.3). This 5.1-point difference was not statistically significant (p>.1).
Transportation Capacity
The Transportation Capacity Index registered 50.0 percent in September 2024. This constitutes a decrease of 6.7 points from last month’s reading. With this large decrease, the Transportation Capacity index is back to neutral, suggesting the market is once again beginning to tighten in seasonally-appropriate manner. There is no significant difference between Upstream and Downstream, with Upstream Transportation Capacity index at 51.5 and the Downstream index slightly lower, at 45.0. As such, the expansion in Transportation Capacity indicated last month is clearly no longer present, both Upstream and Downstream, across the supply chains.
The future Transportation Capacity index is down 8.2 points, now at 44.2 and indicating expectations of contracting Transportation Capacity over the next 12 months. While the Upstream index is at 43.4, and the Downstream Transportation Capacity index is 48.3, with the difference not being statistically significant and both indicating expectations of contraction over the next year.
The Transportation Capacity Index registered 50.0 percent in September 2024. This constitutes a decrease of 6.7 points from last month’s reading. With this large decrease, the Transportation Capacity index is back to neutral, suggesting the market is once again beginning to tighten in seasonally-appropriate manner. There is no significant difference between Upstream and Downstream, with Upstream Transportation Capacity index at 51.5 and the Downstream index slightly lower, at 45.0. As such, the expansion in Transportation Capacity indicated last month is clearly no longer present, both Upstream and Downstream, across the supply chains.
The future Transportation Capacity index is down 8.2 points, now at 44.2 and indicating expectations of contracting Transportation Capacity over the next 12 months. While the Upstream index is at 43.4, and the Downstream Transportation Capacity index is 48.3, with the difference not being statistically significant and both indicating expectations of contraction over the next year.
Transportation Utilization
The Transportation Utilization Index reads in at 57.6 in September, down (-1.9) from August’s reading of 59.5. Despite this slight retreat, the Transportation Utilization Index is still indicating expansion. The expansion is felt across the supply chain, with the Downstream Transportation Utilization Index reading 61.7, while the Upstream index is indicating 56.6. This difference is not statistically significant.
The future Transportation Utilization Index climbed (+0.3) from August, continuing to indicate expansion at 66.5 for the next 12 months. The Upstream Transportation Utilization index is at 64.8 while the Downstream index is at 70.0. The difference is not statistically significant.
The Transportation Utilization Index reads in at 57.6 in September, down (-1.9) from August’s reading of 59.5. Despite this slight retreat, the Transportation Utilization Index is still indicating expansion. The expansion is felt across the supply chain, with the Downstream Transportation Utilization Index reading 61.7, while the Upstream index is indicating 56.6. This difference is not statistically significant.
The future Transportation Utilization Index climbed (+0.3) from August, continuing to indicate expansion at 66.5 for the next 12 months. The Upstream Transportation Utilization index is at 64.8 while the Downstream index is at 70.0. The difference is not statistically significant.
Transportation Prices
The Transportation Prices Index reads in at 58.4 in September 2024, which corresponds to a decrease (-3.2) from August’s reading of 61.3. With this second consecutive decrease in expansion rates, we see that markets are still somewhat volatile as we head into Q4. Despite this volatility the index remains above 50, indicating that the Transportation Prices are still increasing, but at a slower rate. While the Upstream Transportation Prices Index is at 55.1, the Downstream index is at 68.3, a statistically significant difference that shows that price increase pressure is stronger Downstream than Upstream.
The future index for Transportation Prices increased 3.4 points and is now at 80.0. As such, the index continues to indicate strong expectations of higher Transportation Prices in the next 12 months. The Downstream Transportation Prices index is at 85.0 while the Upstream Transportation Prices index is at 78.3, but the difference is not statistically significant.
The Transportation Prices Index reads in at 58.4 in September 2024, which corresponds to a decrease (-3.2) from August’s reading of 61.3. With this second consecutive decrease in expansion rates, we see that markets are still somewhat volatile as we head into Q4. Despite this volatility the index remains above 50, indicating that the Transportation Prices are still increasing, but at a slower rate. While the Upstream Transportation Prices Index is at 55.1, the Downstream index is at 68.3, a statistically significant difference that shows that price increase pressure is stronger Downstream than Upstream.
The future index for Transportation Prices increased 3.4 points and is now at 80.0. As such, the index continues to indicate strong expectations of higher Transportation Prices in the next 12 months. The Downstream Transportation Prices index is at 85.0 while the Upstream Transportation Prices index is at 78.3, but the difference is not statistically significant.
About This Report
The data presented herein are obtained from a survey of logistics supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. LMI® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.
Data and Method of Presentation
Data for the Logistics Manager’s Index is collected in a monthly survey of leading logistics professionals. The respondents are CSCMP members working at the director-level or above. Upper-level managers are preferable as they are more likely to have macro-level information on trends in Inventory, Warehousing and Transportation trends within their firm. Data is also collected from subscribers to both DC Velocity and Supply Chain Quarterly as well. Respondents hail from firms working on all six continents, with the majority of them working at firms with annual revenues over a billion dollars. The industries represented in this respondent pool include, but are not limited to: Apparel, Automotive, Consumer Goods, Electronics, Food & Drug, Home Furnishings, Logistics, Shipping & Transportation, and Warehousing.
Respondents are asked to identify the monthly change across each of the eight metrics collected in this survey (Inventory Levels, Inventory Costs, Warehousing Capacity, Warehousing Utilization, Warehousing Prices, Transportation Capacity, Transportation Utilization, and Transportation Prices). In addition, they also forecast future trends for each metric ranging over the next 12 months. The raw data is then analyzed using a diffusion index. Diffusion Indexes measure how widely something is diffused or spread across a group. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been using a diffusion index for the Current Employment Statics program since 1974, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) has been using a diffusion index to compute the Purchasing Managers Index since 1948. The ISM Index of New Orders is considered a Leading Economic Indicator.
We compute the Diffusion Index as follows:
PD = Percentage of respondents saying the category is Declining,
PU = Percentage of respondents saying the category is Unchanged,
PI = Percentage of respondents saying the category is Increasing,
Diffusion Index = 0.0 * PD + 0.5 * PU + 1.0 * PI
For example, if 25 say the category is declining, 38 say it is unchanged, and 37 say it is increasing, we would calculate an index value of 0*0.25 + 0.5*0.38 + 1.0*0.37 = 0 + 0.19 + 0.37 = 0.56, and the index is increasing overall. For an index value above 0.5 indicates the category is increasing, a value below 0.5 indicates it is decreasing, and a value of 0.5 means the category is unchanged. When a full year’s worth of data has been collected, adjustments will be made for seasonal factors as well.
Logistics Managers Index
Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute Logistics Managers Index Content can be made by contacting in writing at: Dale S. Rogers, WP Carey School of Business, Tempe, Arizona 85287, or by emailing [email protected] Subject: Content Request.
The authors of the Logistics Managers Index shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the Logistics Managers Index Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions, or delays in providing any Logistics Managers Index Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall the authors of the Logistics Managers Index be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the Logistics Managers Index. Logistics Managers Index, and LMI® are registered trademarks.
About The Logistics Manager’s Index®
The Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI) is a joint project between researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, University of Nevada, Reno, Florida Atlantic University, and Rutgers University, supported by CSCMP. It is authored by Zac Rogers Ph.D., Steven Carnovale Ph.D., Shen Yeniyurt Ph.D., Ron Lembke Ph.D., and Dale Rogers Ph.D.
The data presented herein are obtained from a survey of logistics supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. LMI® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.
Data and Method of Presentation
Data for the Logistics Manager’s Index is collected in a monthly survey of leading logistics professionals. The respondents are CSCMP members working at the director-level or above. Upper-level managers are preferable as they are more likely to have macro-level information on trends in Inventory, Warehousing and Transportation trends within their firm. Data is also collected from subscribers to both DC Velocity and Supply Chain Quarterly as well. Respondents hail from firms working on all six continents, with the majority of them working at firms with annual revenues over a billion dollars. The industries represented in this respondent pool include, but are not limited to: Apparel, Automotive, Consumer Goods, Electronics, Food & Drug, Home Furnishings, Logistics, Shipping & Transportation, and Warehousing.
Respondents are asked to identify the monthly change across each of the eight metrics collected in this survey (Inventory Levels, Inventory Costs, Warehousing Capacity, Warehousing Utilization, Warehousing Prices, Transportation Capacity, Transportation Utilization, and Transportation Prices). In addition, they also forecast future trends for each metric ranging over the next 12 months. The raw data is then analyzed using a diffusion index. Diffusion Indexes measure how widely something is diffused or spread across a group. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been using a diffusion index for the Current Employment Statics program since 1974, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) has been using a diffusion index to compute the Purchasing Managers Index since 1948. The ISM Index of New Orders is considered a Leading Economic Indicator.
We compute the Diffusion Index as follows:
PD = Percentage of respondents saying the category is Declining,
PU = Percentage of respondents saying the category is Unchanged,
PI = Percentage of respondents saying the category is Increasing,
Diffusion Index = 0.0 * PD + 0.5 * PU + 1.0 * PI
For example, if 25 say the category is declining, 38 say it is unchanged, and 37 say it is increasing, we would calculate an index value of 0*0.25 + 0.5*0.38 + 1.0*0.37 = 0 + 0.19 + 0.37 = 0.56, and the index is increasing overall. For an index value above 0.5 indicates the category is increasing, a value below 0.5 indicates it is decreasing, and a value of 0.5 means the category is unchanged. When a full year’s worth of data has been collected, adjustments will be made for seasonal factors as well.
Logistics Managers Index
Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute Logistics Managers Index Content can be made by contacting in writing at: Dale S. Rogers, WP Carey School of Business, Tempe, Arizona 85287, or by emailing [email protected] Subject: Content Request.
The authors of the Logistics Managers Index shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the Logistics Managers Index Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions, or delays in providing any Logistics Managers Index Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall the authors of the Logistics Managers Index be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the Logistics Managers Index. Logistics Managers Index, and LMI® are registered trademarks.
About The Logistics Manager’s Index®
The Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI) is a joint project between researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, University of Nevada, Reno, Florida Atlantic University, and Rutgers University, supported by CSCMP. It is authored by Zac Rogers Ph.D., Steven Carnovale Ph.D., Shen Yeniyurt Ph.D., Ron Lembke Ph.D., and Dale Rogers Ph.D.
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[13] van Marle, G. van. (2024b, September 26). Scores of ships en route to USEC will be forced to wait out strike. The Loadstar. https://theloadstar.com/port-strike-scores-of-ships-on-route-to-us-will-be-forced-to-wait-it-out/
[14] COMMERCIALCafe. (2024, September 27). Phoenix No. 2 among U.S. cities for distribution and warehousing. AZ Big Media. https://azbigmedia.com/real-estate/phoenix-no-2-among-u-s-cities-for-distribution-and-warehousing/
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[16] U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2024, September 23). Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/index.php
[2] Gottlich, M. (2024, September 27). U.S. consumer sentiment extends climb; inflation expectations hold steady | Seeking Alpha. Seeking Alpha. https://seekingalpha.com/news/4154120-us-consumer-sentiment-extends-climb-inflation-expectations-hols-steady
[3] Kamp, J., & Overberg, P. (2024, September 10). U.S. Incomes Climbed Last Year, Census Bureau Says. WSJ. https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/household-income-2023-census-report-38b7d21d
[4] Hur, K. (2024, September 27). What fueled this week’s record-breaking stock rally | CNN Business. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/27/investing/stocks-records-pce-fed/index.html
[5] Kirby, J., & Frankl, E. (2024, September 27). Inflation Cools Quickly in France, Spain as ECB Mulls Rate-Cut Path. WSJ. https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/french-inflation-drops-sharply-7aab5f97
[6] Frankl, E. (2024, September 26). German Consumer Sentiment Edges Higher, But Outlook Remains Gloomy. WSJ. https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/german-consumer-sentiment-edges-higher-but-outlook-remains-gloomy-3bcce0f9
[7] Kirby, J., & Frankl, E. (2024, September 27). Inflation Cools Quickly in France, Spain as ECB Mulls Rate-Cut Path. WSJ. https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/french-inflation-drops-sharply-7aab5f97
[8] Bradsher, K. (2024, September 27). China Stocks Soar in Biggest Single-Week Jump Since 2008. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/business/asia-stocks-csi-300.html
[9] Stewart, R. M. (2024a, September 27). Canada GDP Fades After Rising 0.2% in July. Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/canada-gdp-fades-after-rising-0-2-in-july-751840cb
[10] Vieira, P. (2024, September 24). Bank of Canada Gov. Macklem Says Growth Needs to Accelerate to Maintain 2% Inflation. Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-canada-gov-macklem-says-growth-needs-to-accelerate-to-maintain-2-inflation-16dc80db
[11] Berger, P. (2024, September 26). U.S. Ports Try Last-Ditch Effort to Force Dockworkers’ Union to Bargaining Table. Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-ports-try-last-ditch-effort-to-force-dockworkers-union-to-bargaining-table-d145634a
[12] Stewart, R. M. (2024b, September 27). Port of Montreal Dockworkers Set to Strike Monday. Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/port-of-montreal-dockworkers-set-to-strike-monday-04330a9b
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